CHINA, RUSSIA, INDIA and BRAZIL SEEM TO BE WINNING

Photo of Rio by laughlin (http://www.flickr.com/photos/wurzle/831583/).

Who is winning?

Is it China, Russia, Brazil and India?

The rise in the price of oil suggests that these developing nations may be doing relatively well.

Liam Halligan, on 13 June 2009, in the UK Sunday Telegraph, tells us:

Oil prices will be driven by the developing nations

Among the points made:

1. We see recession in the USA and Europe and yet we have high oil prices.

2. The BP Statistical Review of World Energy shows that oil demand in the emerging markets is now greater than in the West.

3. The USA accounts for around 20% of the world's GDP.

Brazil, Russia, India and China (known as BRIC) now account for around 20% of the world's GDP.

4. Countries with large reserves, like the BRICs, "will be able to stabilise their banking systems, defend their currencies and boost their economies without resorting to yet more borrowing or (even worse) the central bank's printing press."

The BRICs now control half of the world's currency reserves.

Excluding Japan, the G7 nations have only 6 %.

5. In June 2009, the BRICs are holding their own summit, in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg.

If the BRICs decide to lend less money to countries like the USA, "the deepest Western recession in 50 years could get a whole lot worse."

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